11/21/2008 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jiri Hudler tallied a pair of goals, including the eventual game-winner, as Detroit scored early and often before staving off a late Edmonton rally for a 4-3 victory.
Pavel Datsyuk had a goal for Detroit, which has won four in a row and six of seven overall. Tomas Kopecky lit the lamp for the Red Wings, who improved to an NHL-best 9-1-1 on the road. Chris Osgood stopped 31-of-34 shots for the win.
Lubomir Visnovsky registered a goal and an assist for the Oilers, who have dropped four of five. Andrew Cogliano and Sheldon Souray scored in defeat. Dwayne Roloson let in three goals on 10 shots and was yanked with 9:49 left in the first. Mathieu Garon came in and stopped 24-of-25.
The Red Wings got on the board 1:50 into the contest. Andreas Lilja took a one-timer from the high slot, but Roloson stopped it. The rebound, however, trickled to his left and Hudler was there to wrist the rebound over Roloson's glove for a 1-0 lead.
Detroit made it 3-0 later in the stanza as Datsyuk and Kopecky tipped in a rebound each 2:11 apart.
On the first, Brian Rafalski took a shot that was blocked but Datsyuk was there to tip in the rebound through the five-hole from inside the right circle for a 2-0 lead with eight minutes gone in the opening stanza.
The next saw Nicklas Lidstrom's shot get denied, but Kopecky was right there for a tip-in to make it 3-0.
The Oilers made it 3-1 with 6:41 left in the second period. As Detroit failed to clear the puck out of its zone, Cogliano skated towards the right side of the ice and gained control of the puck in the right circle. From there he skated in and slipped the disc into the net via the five-hole.
Hudler gave the Red Wings their three-goal lead back with 1:32 left in the middle frame. Derek Meech took a slap shot from the high slot which bounced off the glass and hit Garon in the back. As the puck was sitting next to the crease, Hudler wristed it into the cage for a 4-1 cushion.
During a 4-on-4 the Oilers pulled within two goals with 7:06 to go in the third. With Osgood out of position, the puck trickled into the slot where Visnovsky snapped it into the goal.
21 seconds later, with Valtteri Filppula in the penalty box for high-sticking, the Oilers closed within a goal as Souray's slap shot found its way to the twine.
Edmonton pulled its goalie late in the game for the extra skater, but Detroit didn't let up and held on for the victory.
Game Notes
The Red Wings recorded at least a point for the seventh straight game...Detroit has outscored opponents 21-13 over its last six wins. The Red Wings have also netted 38 goals in 11 road games this year...Shawn Horcoff became the 18th player in club history to skate in 500 games with Edmonton...Ales Hemsky now has 11 power play assists, which leads the NHL...Edmonton is 2-2-2 as the home team this year and will be off until next Wednesday, when it will host the Los Angeles Kings...Detroit had dropped three of four in Edmonton...The Oilers activated defenseman Ladislav Smid from injured reserve on Thursday. Smid was placed on injured reserve because of a concussion earlier in the month. He was hurt during a November 5 game against Columbus and had missed the last seven games. He has two assists in eight games this season...Detroit's Tomas Holmstrom didn't play because of back spasms and teammate Niklas Kronwall didn't play because of an undisclosed lower body injury.
<< Flames edge Avs
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miikka Kiprusoff needed to make just 18 stops to
post his second shutout of the season as the Calgary Flames edged the Colorado
Avalanche, 1-0, at the Pepsi Center.
Daymond Langkow scored the only goal of the ga
<< Gators power past Southern Utah
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Calathes scored 18 points, grabbed
seven rebounds and dished out four assists to lead 18th-ranked Florida over
Southern Utah, 64-50, at the O'Connell Center.
Dan Werner added nine points for the
<< Dwyer leads Georgia Tech past Miami
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jonathan Dwyer rushed for 128 yards and a pair
of touchdowns, and Georgia Tech rolled up 472 yards on the ground in a 41-23
romp of 23rd-ranked Miami-Florida.
Quarterback Josh Nesbitt ran for 93 yards and
<< Kane scores twice as Chicago downs Stars
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Patrick Kane scored twice to pace the Blackhawks
to a 6-3 victory over the Dallas Stars as Chicago continued its successful
six-game road trip.
Kris Versteeg had a goal and two assists, while Brian Campbel
Lakers roll past Suns >>
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kobe Bryant scored 24 points and Lamar Odom
filled the stat sheet with 13 points and nine rebounds off the bench, as the
red-hot Lakers rolled past Phoenix, 105-92.
Vladimir Radmanovic contributed 15 po
Kings cool off Capitals >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dustin Brown and Michal Handzus each had a
goal and an assist as the Los Angeles Kings beat Washington, 5-2, handing the
Capitals their first regular loss since November 1.
Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar an
Four share lead at Hong Kong Open >>
Hong Kong (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Louis Oosthuizen fired an eight-under 62 on
Friday to spotlight a four-way tie for the lead after the second round of the
Hong Kong Open.
Oliver Fisher (65), Chawalit Plaphol (66) and European Ryder Cup
Rockets face Wizards in D.C. >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Rockets will try to get back on the winning
track this evening, when they kick off a three-game road trip against the
Washington Wizards at the Verizon Center.
Houston will also visit Orlando and Miami, and is
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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